Thomas Rawson, University of Oxford

Title: Pandemic Preparedness in an Aging Britain: Forecasting pandemic dynamics in 2047

Speaker: Thom Rawson (JUNIPER Fellow), University of Oxford

Chair: TBC

Abstract:

The Office for National Statistics' 2047 population projections point to an older average population in England. Their central forecasts predict a 13% total population rise, but the number of individuals aged 80 and over is set to double. With an older population comes increased underlying healthcare demand. While these demands are already poorly understood, even less clear is the anticipated pressure from healthcare shocks due to emerging novel pandemics. To explore this question, Dr. Rawson is using the modelling machinery produced during the COVID-19 pandemic to explore a counterfactual - "what would happen if the COVID-19 pandemic had occurred in 2047?" In this talk, he presents the model projections, demonstrates the mechanistic differences age distribution plays between the two scenarios, and discusses what these results mean for ongoing pandemic preparedness efforts in England.

Please note the recording of this seminar, including Q&As with the audience, will be made public via YouTube.