Jessica Furber (University of Surrey)
Speaker: Jessica Furber (University of Surrey)
Title: Sobol sensitivity analysis of factors influencing the ecology of mosquitoes involved in the transmission of Rift Valley Fever virus
Abstract:Vector-borne diseases are a major global health concern, with Rift Valley fever (RVF) serving as a key example due to its impact on both human and animal health. Predicting and controlling such diseases requires understanding how environmental factors shape mosquito ecology. Due to mosquito abundance, distribution, and behaviour being influenced by ecological conditions, identifying the drivers of these dynamics is essential for anticipating transmission risk. This presentation introduces a previously published compartmental model of mosquito ecology and RVF transmission, focusing on its application to identify key ecological drivers.
Our study assessed the sensitivity of ecological parameters influencing mosquito population dynamics using a deterministic compartmental model tailored to the Kenyan context. We conducted a Sobol sensitivity analysis on ten parameters, including species-specific factors for Culex spp. and Aedes spp. (e.g., oviposition area, egg-laying suitability, egg density) and shared parameters such as livestock population size and its impact on vector fecundity. The analysis was performed under two environmental scenarios: (i) constant temperature and water body area, and (ii) periodically varying conditions.
Results revealed species-specific differences in parameter influence. For Culex spp., the area scanned for oviposition emerged as a critical driver of uncertainty, while for Aedes spp., the combination of egg-laying suitability and maximum egg density were dominant. These findings underscore the importance of spatial oviposition patterns, emphasizing the need for improved empirical data to refine model predictions. By identifying the ecological parameters that most critically shape mosquito population dynamics and/or influence model outputs, and thereby the transmission potential of RVF, this work supports more targeted vector surveillance and strengthens public health decision-making in RVF-endemic regions.